During the election campaign, most American unions supported the Democrats. Many union leaders warned of the risks of another Trump presidency. The president of the United Auto Workers (UAW), Shawn Fain, made his stance clear by wearing a T-shirt that read "Trump is a scab." The term refers to Trump's statement advocating for the firing of striking autoworkers.

As of Monday, Trump is officially in office. His administration will reshape labor policy in significant ways:

• On the one hand, unions welcome Trump’s promises to bring back industrial jobs to the U.S. Many hope that tariffs on China and Mexico will help return outsourced jobs.

• On the other hand, unions have serious concerns about the broader direction of Trump's administration. The expected changes at the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) are likely to weaken worker protections.

• Organizing will become even more difficult, overtime pay may be eliminated for many workers, healthcare costs are expected to rise, and workplace safety protections could be rolled back.

Elon Musk's Influence

One of the key figures in Trump's economic agenda is Elon Musk, a notorious opponent of organized labor. Musk made the largest single donation to Trump's campaign and maintains a strategic alliance with the president. Both are known for their combative rhetoric and anti-union positions, albeit for different reasons:

• Musk has openly called unions unnecessary and has been repeatedly accused of union-busting in his factories.

• Trump, meanwhile, portrays himself as a "worker's president," appealing to his blue-collar base with "America First" rhetoric.

• However, his policies tell a different story. During his first term, Trump backed anti-worker policies that favored corporations, including deregulation and weakening labor protections.

• Trump's business empire — spanning hotels, golf courses, and real estate — has a long history of labor disputes. Workers at his Las Vegas hotel, for instance, have reported low wages and poor working conditions.

Trump has encouraged unionized automakers to move their factories to the South, where labor laws are weaker and wages are lower. He has also praised Musk's aggressive stance against unions. Both men emphasize individual performance and personal responsibility, favoring corporate interests over collective bargaining. While Musk sees unions as an obstacle to innovation, Trump views them as a barrier to economic growth.

Ultimately, Trump aims to weaken organized labor, advance employer-friendly policies, and shift the balance of power further toward corporations. Unions remain highly vigilant regarding any policy changes that could undermine workers' rights.

Trump's Economic and Trade Policies

The new president is preparing to overhaul many aspects of economic policy:

• Deregulation: Trump is expected to roll back regulations in key areas such as environmental protection, workplace safety, and labor rights.

• Mass Deportations: The administration plans to deport up to 11 million undocumented immigrants, creating a climate of fear among workers without proper documentation.

• Trade and Industry: Trump aims to reduce U.S. dependence on foreign imports, cut trade deficits, and boost domestic manufacturing jobs.

• Energy Policy: His administration plans to expand fossil fuel production—including oil, gas, coal, and fracking — to drive down energy costs and increase U.S. energy independence.

• Electric Vehicles and Renewables: Support for green energy and EV subsidies is expected to decline. Musk, as the dominant player in the electric vehicle market, could benefit by limiting competition from other automakers.

Trump's aggressive trade policies, particularly his proposed tariffs, will have far-reaching consequences. He has pledged:

• 10–20% tariffs on all imports

• 10–60% tariffs on Chinese goods

• 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada

• 100% tariffs on countries that abandon the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency

Impact on German Industry

The effects on German industry will vary by sector and region, creating both winners and losers. Trump's tariffs could put thousands of jobs at risk in Germany, as many German industries rely on exports to the U.S. According to calculations by the Institute for Macroeconomics and Business Cycle Research (IMK), up to 300,000 jobs in Germany could be lost if Trump enacts his tariff plans and other nations respond with retaliatory measures.

A key risk lies in the automotive sector. Many German automakers operate factories in Mexico to serve the North American market. Around 80% of all cars manufactured in Mexico are exported to the U.S. This aligns with the principle of "Build where you sell," prompting German automakers to expand their presence in Mexico due to lower labor costs and proximity to the U.S.

Companies such as Volkswagen and their suppliers are particularly vulnerable. In 2024, VW exported around 16,000 vehicles from the EU to the U.S., but nearly 242,000 from Mexico. Trump's proposed 25% tariff would apply each time a component crosses the U.S.-Mexico border, significantly increasing production costs.

Trump's second presidency will have profound consequences — not only for U.S. workers but also for German industry and employment. Unions in both countries must prepare for a difficult fight to defend workers' rights in the face of Trump's corporate-friendly policies.